The Judgment Call Podcast The Judgment Call Podcast

00:00:20 How Maciej got started with Amtelon Capital and why he chose Iran as a primary investment target?
00:05:33 Why is Iran like Russia (and Eastern Europe ) in the 1990s? Is there a catalyst for Iran making it back to be connected with the rest of the world?
00:14:25 A short story of sanctions against Iran.
00:26:06 How Iranians and the regime in Iran differ? Why is the regime so successful in controlling power?
00:32:32 What are great businesses to invest in Iran?
00:48:11 How Iran avoided the 'Dutch disease' of big commodity exporters.
00:56:08 Is Iran starting to be a new part of an 'Axis power'? Will this hamper the participation of outside investors in the Iranian market?




Maciej Wojtal is the founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital which is focused on investing in Iranian equities. Maciej has worked with Citigroup and JP Morgan before running his own fund.



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Torsten Jacobi: Maciej, welcome to the Podcast. Thanks for coming on, really appreciate that.
Maciej Wojtal: Yes, thank you for having me here.
Torsten Jacobi: Hey, absolutely. You run something really interesting and you are the cofounder and the CIO of Amtalan Capital, which really focuses on investing primarily in equities in Iran, from what I understand. That sounds really cool, really unique. I have never heard about an investment fund out there that actually invests in Iran. How did that happen? How did you get started on why Iran? Why not something that's a little more politically correct, so to speak?
Maciej Wojtal: Yes, well, it is super exciting. And when I speak to the local regulator in Iran, they tell us that we are their favorite foreign investor, foreign institutional investor, because we are the only one. There is really no other foreign institutional investor in Iran, so we are the only ones. So I decided to launch Amtalan Capital back in 2016, when JCPOA, the nuclear agreement, was implemented. And the reason why Iran and not something else was actually pretty simple. There was no other market. There's still there is still no other market at this moment in the world with lower evaluations, a higher growth potential, both like a long term structural growth potential, as well as near term growth that will be coming from the reopening of the country or reintegration of the country with the rest of the world. And to be honest, this is potentially the last opportunity of this size. So the type of opportunity, I mean, is a transformational opportunity. So country going from one situation, because it's not from one system to another, I don't expect any political, you know, revolution or transformation there. But the economic situation will change, will change from a, you know, decades of sanctions, where the economy was basically cut off from the rest of the world to the economy that is slowly opening up, catching up with the rest of emerging markets, with everything good that happened in the rest of the emerging markets over the last two decades. And on top of that, no one is there. So Americans cannot touch it. So all the big funds out there have to wait until the primary US sanctions are lifted. So suddenly you get, you get to go to a new market like this of this size and invest before the big US funds go there. It doesn't happen too often. And what I mean of this size, what I mean by this size is, you know, that

00:00:23 How did Jared's path from Lehman Brothers to Internet personality develop?
00:05:06 How did the finance industry develop during the last 20 years?
00:08:18 Jared's experience on writing a novel (and how it compares to his other book)?
00:11:29 What is Jared's view of the deflation/ inflation debate?
00:17:03 Is productivity growth really as low as we assume? What role do stock buybacks play?
00:22:01 Is individual risk taking the key to increase productivity growth?
00:25:01 What are great areas of investment according to Jared?
00:30:01 Will DeFi eradicate banks and most of the financial industry?
00:34:01 Is the banking industry a good indicator for the health and competitiveness of an economy?
00:38:36 How consistent should financial commentators be?




Jared Dillian is the author of Street Freak: Money and Madness at Lehman Brothers, named one of the top business books of 2011 by Businessweek magazine.



Jared runs The Daily Dirtnap, LLC, which provides daily market commentary and insight to a range of institutional clients.



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Torsten Jacobi : Jared, thanks a lot for coming unto the Judgment Call Podcast, I really appreciate that.



Jared Dillian: Yeah.



Torsten Jacobi : Hey, thanks for taking the time.



And you know, you have a really interesting history, and it's something that's becoming a bit of a theme though, is you started in an investment bank, and you worked for Lehman Brothers, then you wrote a book, you became an author, and now you're an internet personality, you run your own internet business, your own content business. Maybe you can tell us a little bit more about this transition, how this came upon, and how do you feel, was it the right choice looking back, or do you feel like, well, no, I want to go back to an investment bank?



Jared Dillian : No, it was absolutely the right choice.



It was funny because I was talking to my old boss at Lehman, this is the guy that I worked for 2001, 2002, and he told me a story of, you know, when I worked for him, we used to get the Garmin letter.



I don't know if you know Dennis Garmin, but we used to get the Garmin letter at Lehman Brothers, and he had probably the biggest financial newsletter. It was a daily letter, and I used to get this stuff, and you know, I liked it. I didn't, you know, I didn't think his writing was the best, but I said, this is an amazing business. I was like, you can just get paid to write about finance, you know, I'd never heard of this before.



So around 2003, you know, I had this idea in my head that I wanted to write a financial newsletter, so I had some ideas, and my initial idea was it would be sort of a retail newsletter.



I would charge a very small amount of money, about $150 a year, and I would do personal finance stuff, and then I would do seminars and stuff like that.



And I figured if I had 1,000 subscribers, I would make $150,000 a year, and that would be enough.



And then what happened was, while I was at Lehman, I was put in charge of the ETF desk, and I was told to just grow the business, because the business was very small. They said grow the business, so my idea was to do that through writing.



So I started writing market commentary and sending it out to people, and it was very popular, and it grew

00:00:33 How Stephen got started in the world of finance and what motivated him to write his latest book.
00:10:05 What is the basic premise of Stephen's analysis of financial statements (forensic accounting)?
00:21:01 What is the fine line between fraud and creative accounting?
00:27:22 What is Stephen's analysis of the Wirecard fraud?
00:32:27 How well do the current accounting standards actually work for provide transparency into profits/ losses of banks?
00:39:51 Where does all the printed money (from Central Banks) actually go? What is the best option to 'weather the current low growth environment'?
00:51:10 How 'money printing' at this huge scale seems to be deflationary instead of inflationary?




Stephen Clapham is a retired hedge fund partner who now trains stock analysts at some of the world's largest and most successful institutional investors. Stephen is also the author of The Smart Money Method: How to pick stocks like a hedge fund pro and hosts his own podcast.



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Stephen, thanks a lot for coming on the Judgment Call Podcast. I really appreciate it. Wow, thank you for having me. I'm looking forward to it. Hey, absolutely. I'm sorry about my improvised setup here today, but I hope you can still manage that. So you run a company called Behind the Balance Sheet and you also recently published a book that's called The Smart Money Method. And both I thought are really interesting and we want to dive a little deeper into both of the topics that you illuminate there. Maybe you can give us a very quick intro into how you got into the financial world in the first place and what inspired you to write the book and what's kind of the 30,000 feet view of what's in the book. Okay, so nothing inspired me to get into finance. It was purely accidental and serendipitous. I had accepted a job at a very senior level, one of the largest companies in the UK, where I was reporting to somebody that was reporting to the CFO, Finance Directorate. I was interviewed by the CFO for the job at a relatively young age and they gave me the job and they were delighted to have me and I accepted the role and they then called me up and they said, oh, we made a bit of a mistake because you're too young. You can't be this grade until next year and I said, well, what do you mean? And they said, well, you know, don't worry, only a little bit less money and there'll be a slightly fewer benefits and we'll make you up next year. And I said, well, I'm very sorry, but you know, as far as I'm concerned, we had a deal and I'm not allowing you to renege in that deal. If you have such a stupid philosophy that somebody has to be a certain age before they're qualified to do the job, then I suggest you go and look elsewhere because I'm not really interested in working for an organisation where merit doesn't overcome age. And I was recounting this tale and a friend of mine said, oh, well, that sounds a bit upsetting, but why don't you go into the city? And I said, well, don't be stupid. I don't know any of the cities for people with privileged backgrounds that won't suit me. And he said, well, no, I think you'll find that things are opening up and I said, well, how would I do that? Well, I don't know. How would I get? I don't even know where to start. And he said, well, I don't know either, but my secretary's husban

 




00:00:31 How Mike researched and developed his theory of a market bubble in passive investing/ index investing? Are markets about information or transactions?
00:08:01 Is the bubble of investing just a (bigger) change of the NIFTY fifty or the NASDAQ bubble in the 2000's?
00:13:53 Does Mike's theory of passive investing predict higher volatility due to the changes in market structure?
00:19:22 Is our low productivity growth linked to inefficient capital allocation due to passive investing skewing investments? Is the Fed to blame for the asset bubbles?
00:26:57 Is the Fed's own forecast model broken now that markets follow a flow model much more than a valuation model?
00:31:01 Is our retirement model the problem or the solution? Is a future crash inevitable? Is the small enterprise dead forever?
00:39:13 How should contrarian investors position themselves? How committed can one be to an 'impending bubble'?
00:47:45 What is America's contribution to the world? Does China now have the better approach to capitalism? Can we ever come up with companies that do things cheap and better (instead of just better)?
00:55:05 Are societal changes solely to blame for changes in productivity growth?
01:01:01 Can longevity research (and the ability to live forever) change how the world will grow?
01:09:01 Should we always be 'smart investors' or is 'going with the crowd' often better? What are the dilemmas of the contrarian or cataclysmic investor? How do high profile investors deal with this?
01:21:10 What other bubbles does Mike see in today's market and how can retail investors trade against such a bubble formation (if they choose to do so)?
01:26:48 Will China start a hot war in Asia in the next 15 years? Will trade (and China's trading partners) matter? How is the chess board stacked towards such a war. What are China's incentives?




 



Mike Green has been a student of markets and market structure for nearly 30 years. Mike works with Simplify to create ETF products that give retail investors an edge. Before that Mike has worked with Logica Capital Advisers and Thiel Macro.



You may watch this episode on Youtube - #100 Mike Green (The gravitational force of passive investing on capital allocation and geopolitics).



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Torsten Jacobi: Mike, welcome to the Judgment Call podcast. Thanks for coming. We appreciate that.
Mike Green: Thank you, Torsten. It's a pleasure to be here.
Torsten Jacobi:  Hey, so your claim to fame is really the passive investment bubble, and you also recently joined Simplify, one of the most interesting ETF creators out there. My first question is for listeners out there who haven't heard of this particular bubble that you've been describing for a couple of years now, what are the core tenants of your thesis there, and what do you think is wrong with passive investment? Because a lot of us think of this as a very safe and potentially very lucrative investing stone.
Mike Green: Well, I think this is one of the challenges that in terms of my theory and what I've observed about the market and how it's playing out is that for most investors, there's a natural attraction to being in a passive vehicle. Your objective is very much to just try to match the return of the market, and so it feels like it is the right choice, and you're seeking ou

00:01:00 How Thaddeus got into philosophy and theology in the first place?
00:05:45 How political pluralism should work? Is the US actually pluralistic?
00:12:23 Has liberalism built a super structure of metaethics on top of religions. Are religions (too) boxed in by the liberal structure? How has our consciousness already been changed by this structure?
00:19:13 Is the treatment of religions and reality comparable? How should philosophy deal with quantum physics?
00:30:03 What did postmodernism contribute to the current state of philosophy?
00:35:03 What did Friedrich Nietzsche really try to tell us in 'Thus Spoke Zarathustra'? How much of his depression should be attributed Christianity?
00:39:03 Why are so many people falling out with active Christianity? Is it connected to the different role of idolatry (the replacement of the divine) between the older Abrahamic religions and the New Testament?
00:45:02 What kind of love is the most fulfilling - self-centered or selfless?
00:51:02 How does Ayn Rand's philosophy (Objectivism) fit into the high regard that is given to selfless love by philosophers? Is altruism self love or selflessness?
00:53:01 Why do we have this endless potential of addiction? Is addiction a coping mechanism for reality? Does it help us reconcile long-term and short-term goals? Is it better than being stuck in place?
00:57:34 Is religion a system of societal error correction? Do religions give you better life goals (and free you of addictions). Have religions become too lazy and are not challenged enough? Has postmodernism shown us how uncontested religious ideas are a problem?
01:07:13 Is the catholic church a good model for a 'world government'?




Thaddeus Kozinski is a professor of theology and philosophy at the Divine Mercy University. He is the author of Modernity as Apocalypse: Sacred Nihilism and the Counterfeits of Logos and The Political Problem of Religious Pluralism: And Why Philosophers Can't Solve It.



You may watch this episode on Youtube - Thaddeus 'the Catholic' (Pluralism, Liberalism, Postmodernism, Idolatry, World Government).



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Today's welcome to the judgment call podcast really appreciate thanks for coming You're welcome. Thanks for having me on torsten. Hey, absolutely I looked into you a little bit and there's two books that you wrote and it stood out and got quite a bit of recognition One is where you talk about what role does religious pluralism have in society? How nation states should actually be a construct and is that even possible which we all think it is right? So that's kept I guess the consensus and the other book that I took a quick look at is How Catholicism really fits into modern society and what what happened to Catholicism? Because it went through so many changes at least the public perception during the last 100 years So i'm excited to talk about this and you're also just in that before when we spoke earlier you mentioned A couple of other topics that I think are really relevant to today's discussion about what's going on in the world So maybe like my first question is how did you start with philosophy and how do you select those topics? So why are certain things closer to your heart like those topics? We just talked about and others that you come across from what you feel others are not as relevant to y

00:03:30 What regulation should we employ in the financial industry? Does it make us more safe?
00:10:57 How Max got into his current career and what he has learned from his interviewees.
00:17:01 Is the world going crazy? Is the 'attentionalism' already changing people and is the financial industry a good showcase for this? Is 'career risk' actually the most important part of financial decision making? How should 'risk taking' work in the financial industry?
00:27:00 What is the state of financial media? Why is holding up better than other parts of journalism?
00:36:01 Which opportunities are available in the finance sector? Are entrepreneurial opportunities in other sectors of the economy really harder to come by than a few decades ago?
00:41:16 Will machines take over everything but marketing and sales? Are humans competitive vs. machines in terms of making complex decisions?
00:56:16 Will we see the 'rise of independent curators' in the financial industry?
01:10:30 Have preferences for earning money changed? Is quality of life more important than high earnings?
01:20:11 Will exploring new planets (and the possibilities of discovering assets) change the society on earth forever?




 



You may watch this episode on Youtube - Max Wiethe (The state of financial industry and financial journalism).



Max Wiethe is an editor and journalist at Real Vision where Max hosts a weekly series of interviews with financial industry heavyweights.



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I actually saw something yesterday, a guy who was talking about like, go on zero hedge and there are articles that are promoting stocks. And he actually, he said back in the 80s, he got a call or his dad got a call from basically a boiler room broker telling him that it was the height of Billy Crystal, if you know the comedian Billy Crystal, his career, he said, this company is making the next Billy Crystal movie and got him to invest $2,000 and he ended up losing all of his money. Not a ton of money, but in the 80s, $2,000 was a good chunk of money and he was basically saying these websites where you can promote a stock and then they'll just have a little disclaimer down at the bottom, it's like so and so may have received compensation to write this article. Like that's the same guy as the people in the Wolf of Wall Street who were calling you and saying like, I've got Aerotine international investment and like when you see it on a website, it doesn't feel like it's a broker because it's not a broker, but that person is being compensated to write that article about that stock and if you can't tell, if you can't see those little things, you might not understand the biases of that information. So there's lots of things like that that I think are important. I mean, happy to just talk about content in general and how I think about it. I think you'll find... I want to get into this. Yeah, I said I think you'll find once you get me going, we will have no problem filling time. Yeah. Well, we don't want to just fill time, but I'm really curious about your insight and you've seen the industry from a different point of view than most of us. And maybe you can just go there right now. One thing that a lot of people in the financial industries or industry are very much involved with it, but they're also passionate to an extent with it is regulati