The Dividend Cafe The Bahnsen Group
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The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
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Bad Drivers, Good Dollars, and Crony Deals
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JLnpSl
It has been an interesting week in the market, but as you will see in the first paragraph below it may seem like nothing happened whatsoever. That is more common than people think. Today we visit the state of the U.S. dollar, the “safe haven” of bitcoin, the politics of oil, the nature of contrarian investing, and more. Just a lot of easy-bite tidbits to edify you this beautiful spring weekend.
And before I remind you that a new and improved Dividend Cafe is coming any day, jump on in, to this Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com -
The DC Today - Thursday, April 18, 2024
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3w8tK6R
Somewhat of a repeat of yesterdays market action with a positive morning failing to hold momentum and falling off into the close in more consolidation in markets around rates. We did eek out a small gain on the Dow, but the SP500 closed slightly lower for the fifth session in a row. The 2-YR Treasury is back to YTD highs at just under 5% and 10-YR was up 5 bps today to 4.63%. For what was on the docket today in the economic calendar, mostly good news. Jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing data all modestly ahead of expectations, but it just wasn’t enough to keep the momentum on the day. There isn’t a lot of economic news for the remainder of this week, and most eyes will be on the PCE figures out next Friday.
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com -
The DC Today - Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TX5X1I
What started off as a positive trading morning, slid negative as the day progressed. Powell’s comments yesterday were debated as to whether he took his ‘Pivot’ from October back. Not to worry, because first, I don’t think he did take it back and two rate cuts are still priced in to Fed futures, and second, as I mentioned yesterday there is enough in the economy that is good at this time to withstand a delayed move lower in rates by a few months. The Fed’s beige book out today supported that general positive undertone in the economy which helped us off the lows of the day a few hours before closing as well.
Seeing as we all made our tax payments this week, yesterday we saw the US Government take in the most it ever has in tax collections from corporations and non withheld amounts at $155B. The previous high water mark was back in 2022 following a big year prior and reopening after the pandemic when the same April figure was $121B. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expecting total tax receipts for the full year 2024 to come in right near that record level in 2022 at roughly $4.93T. This is good news for the budget deficit and the growth rate of Treasury bill issuance which is set to decline for the first time in two years, although still won’t put us any where near an actual budget surplus when we are talking about chipping away at a $2T deficit.
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com -
The DC Today - Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q5001u
A mixed day of trading between positive and negative all morning and right into the market close with the Dow slightly higher and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just below fair value. Rates continue their move higher, with the 10-year up 4 bps and now at the 4.66% level. So aside from what so far has been a tougher start to the second quarter, a few things to keep in mind:
Rates and Fed futures have reset higher based just as much on stronger-than-expected good things in the economy, such as earnings growth, GDP, and employment, as they have on inflation expectations.
We are still only 4% from all-time highs in the S&P 500 when the historical intra-year drawdown is more like 14% on average.
So, yes, markets are down a little here, and volatility is up with higher rates, but keep in mind this is pretty run-of-the-mill market consolidation at most at this point.
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com -
The DC Today - Monday, April 15, 2024
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q2J5g8
Against Doomsdayism
Where this Iran-Israel atrocity goes from here, what should and should not have been done, what and should not be done, what it will mean for markets and oil prices – all these things notwithstanding, the winner of the weekend appears to be anti-missile defense systems, first pursued by the Reagan administration in the 1980’s. The ability for this technology across multiple mediums to bat nearly a thousand in putting down missiles and drones coming in hot to do unspeakable damage is, well, vindicating. The specifics of the various technologies and strategies are fascinating, but for now, we celebrate those whose vision was to shoot down missiles and missiles, from ground and from air. Such military investment saves lives, and deserves our celebration.
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com -
One of These Years is Not Like the Other
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ
I cannot tell you how much fun it is for me to spend three hours on a Friday morning reading research. Reading when it is dark outside is the single activity that brings me the most joy, and I love the inspiration it fostered for today's Dividend Cafe
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Customer Reviews
Good understanding of Markets
Daily listener. Good breakdown of markets and economy.
Excellent source of understanding the markets and reasoning behind it. Also good info on investing and investors.
Thanks for the podcast,
Thumbs up - Christian influenced, guided insights.
👍👍👍👍👍Always MORE than economics!
A Must-listen for Understanding Markets and the Economy
I’m a regular listener who has found this program to be essential for understanding the forces in our economy. You have to listen for a bit to understand all the terminology but the effort reaps benefits.