Global Dispatches -- World News That Matters

On April 1st, Israel launched airstrikes on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, killing seven Iranian officials, including a very senior general. Iran responded with a massive drone attack on Israel, marking the first time that Iran directly attacked Israeli soil. All this is happening, of course, in the context of the conflict in Gaza. My interview guest Dalia Dassa Kaye is a Senior Fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations and a Fulbright Schuman Visiting Scholar at Lund University. She has done extensive research and writing on the mechanics of armed conflict escalation in the Middle East, which we discuss in the context of this current crisis. We kick off discussing the recent series of events since April before having a broad conversation about the dynamics of escalation between Israel and Iran. This includes the potential that the United States becomes more deeply dragged into this conflict in the Middle East.

On the one year anniversary of the outbreak of civil war, Sudan is the largest humanitarian crisis in the world today. On April 15, 2023, fighting spread from Khartoum to other parts of the country, including Darfur, where the conflict took on ugly ethnic dimensions, potentially leading to genocide. Over 8 million people have been displaced, and the UN is warning of famine in parts of the country. My interview guest today, Kholood Khair, is the founder and director of Confluency Advisory, a think-and-do tank formerly based in Khartoum. She explains how the conflict has evolved over the last year and why the humanitarian crisis is as dire as ever. In our conversation, we spend a lot of time discussing potential ways out of this crisis, which thus far have been elusive. Kholood Khair explains: How the conflict in Sudan began. How the conflict has changed over the last year. Why the conflict is becoming more complex and harder to solve the longer it lasts What the international community, including the United States, can do to better support a peace process. Please support our ongoing efforts to cover undercovered global stories by becoming a paid supporter of Global Dispatches on Substack or Apple Podcasts https://www.globaldispatches.org/

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency, better known as UNRWA, was established in 1949 to support Palestinians displaced during the first Arab-Israeli war. Today, it provides services and humanitarian relief to nearly 6 million Palestinians in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and of course Gaza.  There has always been some tension between Israel and UNRWA, but since the October 7th attacks and the Israel war in Gaza, Israeli leaders have sought to dismantle UNRWA all together and the United States seems to be a willing partner in this effort. Following accusations that 12 out of UNRWA's 13,000 staff in Gaza took part in the October 7 attacks, the United States suspended funding for UNRWA and many other key donors followed suit. This funding suspension took place even as UNRWA's humanitarian relief networks in Gaza are widely regarded as irreplaceable. To the extent that aid is reaching besieged populations in Gaza, it is UNRWA facilitating the deliveries.  My interview guest today, Jonathan Lincoln is a former United Nations official who served as a Senior Coordination Officer at the Jerusalem office of the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, where he worked on aid in the West Bank and Gaza. He is now the interim Director of the Center for Jewish Civilization at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He recently wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs about the necessity of UNRWA and the need for reforming the agency which inspired this interview.

On March 31st, Turkey held local elections across 81 provinces. These elections took place less than a year after national elections cemented President Erdogan and his AK Party's hold on power, which he had been consolidating for nearly 20 years through democratic backsliding. But these elections were different -- very different. Erdogan's AKP suffered huge defeats across the country, perhaps none more impactful and symbolic than the AKP's crushing loss in the Istanbul Mayoral race. As my guest today, Lisel Hintz, explains, these may have been local elections, but the results show a growing nationwide opposition to Erdogan and his authoritarian leadership style. Lisel Hintz is an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. We kick off by discussing the implications of the election results before delving into a lengthy conversation about Istanbul's mayor, who is emerging as a prominent national leader challenging Erdogan.  

The Gaitenistas, otherwise known as the Gulf Clan, are Colombia's largest and richest criminal armed group. They formed nearly 20 years ago but have gained considerable strength since Colombia's landmark 2016 peace agreement with the Leftist FARC guerrilla group. Today, The Gulf Clan controls much of Colombia's Atlantic coast and is a key player in drug trafficking and migrant smuggling. All the while, they use coercive tactics to control the population. My guest today, Elizabeth Dickinson, is Senior Analyst for Colombia at the International Crisis Group and author of a recent report on this group. In our conversation, she explains how this group emerged to become such a potent force in Colombia today and why it is thus far upending President Gustavo Petro's efforts to secure a so-called Total Peace for all of Colombia. The Crisis Group report.   

Xi Jinping has dramatically reshaped China since coming to power in 2012. He is now effectively a leader for life, and throughout his time in power, he has molded Chinese politics and society to his own ideological predilections. Understanding this ideology, known as "Xi Thought," is crucial for comprehending how China perceives its role in the world today. Steve Tsang, the director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London and co-author with Olivia Cheung of the new book "The Political Thought of Xi Jinping," provides a thorough analysis of the development and application of Xi's political ideology and its impact on China domestically and in its international relations. We begin by discussing why understanding Xi Thought matters for comprehending China today. We then explore some of the key tenets of this ideology before engaging in a detailed conversation about an ancient Chinese imperialist ideology that Xi is reviving for the modern world.

Podcast guest Rosemary Salomone is the Kenneth Wang Professor of Law at St John's University School of Law and author of the book "The Rise of English: Global Politics and the Power of Language." The book takes readers around the world to show the political, social and cultural implications of English having been firmly established as the Lingua Franca. We kick off discussing how English became the dominant global language. We then discuss how reactions against the dominance of English are shaping domestic and international politics in interesting and sometimes unusual ways.     

In Mid-March the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill that would effectively ban Tik Tok in the United States. Tik Tok's parent company, Byte Dance, is Chinese. This bill would force Byte Dance to sell Tik Tok to an American buyer or else the app would no longer be available in the United States. President Biden has said he’d sign this bill into law, but at the moment the legislation is stalled in the Senate.    My guest today Kaiser Kuo argues that these anti-Tik Tok measures are emblematic of a "moral panic" around China that is increasingly taking hold among American policy makers. He is the host of the Sinica Podcast and after discussing our views on whether or not the US should ban Tik Tok, we discuss the broader geopolitical context in which a move like this is being contemplated. 

The Commission on the Status of Women concludes this week at the United Nations. CSW, as it is known, is one of the major annual events at UN headquarters, second only to the opening of the UN General Assembly in September. But unlike UNGA, it rarely gets much media attention, at least not the kind of attention commensurate for a diplomatic gathering of its size. Joining me to explain the key debates and discussion from the 68th Commission on the Status of Women is Michelle Milford Morse, Vice President for Girls and Women Strategy at the United Nations Foundation.  We kick off with a long conversation about the unique diplomatic dynamic surrounding international debates and discussions on gender equality--including why after years of progress, advocates for gender equality are now playing defense. We then discuss some of items that were on the agenda at CSW this year.   

The security and humanitarian situation in Haiti has gone from bad to worse over the last several days. The country, ensnared in an enduring crisis following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, now faces a critical juncture as violence led by gang coalitions escalates and state authority wanes. Amid this chaos, Prime Minister Ariel Henry signaled his intent to step down, agreeing to a transitional governing council. Meanwhile, a Kenya-lead prospective police mission under UN authorization remains in limbo, highlighting the urgency for immediate intervention to prevent further collapse. Renata Segura, Deputy Director for Latin American and the Caribbean for the International Crisis Group, sheds light on Haiti's descent into chaos. This includes a recent surge in gang conflict which saw a temporary alliance aiming to confront the state's governance structures. This gang alliance has led to an unprecedented level of turmoil, targeting police stations, airports, and causing mass jailbreaks. Segura explains where this crisis may be headed next, and what the international community can do to prevent the crisis from getting even worse.  Key Takeaways: Haiti has entered a heightened state of crisis following a gang coalition that directly challenges state authority. Prime Minister Ariel Henry has agreed to transfer power to a transitional council composed of various Haitian political and civil society groups. The United Nations Security Council's multinational support mission, led by Kenya, is critical but currently faces significant challenges in deployment. Renata Segura emphasizes the importance of swiftly addressing the violence in Haiti before the state potentially fails completely. There is discussion around the prospect of integrating gangs into the political framework as a means to de-escalate conflict.

Artificial Intelligence is changing warfare. Fully autonomous weapons that can make their own decisions about what to target or whom to kill are already in limited use today. But the pace of development of AI suggests that these so-called "Killer Robots" may become more and more common in future armed conflicts. Meanwhile, the speed at which new AI technology is coming online far exceeds the ability of the international community to come up with guardrails that might place controls on fully autonomous weapon systems. Guest Paul Scharre is the Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security. He is the award-winning author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. We kick off by discussing what we mean by autonomous weapons before having a longer conversation about what the future holds for AI in warfare, nuclear security, and how to secure sensible regulations on autonomous weapons and military uses of AI. Paul Scharre in Foreign Affairs  

Western countries have seized hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian assets following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Since then, the question of what to do with those assets has loomed large over debates about Ukraine. Vladimir Milov is a Former Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation and now a Russian opposition politician. Milov makes a compelling case for the expropriation of these assets as a means to aid Ukraine's reconstruction efforts and explains the web of state-affiliated money hidden overseas. Vladimir Milov delves into the staggering amount of Russian capital funneled out of the country, shedding light on the possibility that a significant portion is controlled by entities with direct ties to the Russian state. He emphasizes the necessity of differentiating between clearly identified state-owned assets and the more obscured parastatal resources that play a role in the international economy. Milov also discusses the potential for substantial funds to be uncovered, which could dramatically aid in the reconstruction of Ukraine's war-damaged infrastructure and society. Vladimir Milov's article for GlobeSec

Stuart Reid is the executive editor of Foreign Affairs and author of the new book "The Lumumba Plot: The Secret History of the CIA and a Cold War Assassination." The book tells the story of Congo's liberation from Belgium in the 1950s and 60s and the rise to prominence of Patrice Lumumba, Congo's charismatic independence leader. Believing Lumumba to be under the sway of the Soviet Union, the CIA hatched a plot to assassinate him at a time when Congo was falling into a chaotic civil war. Into this civil war, UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld dispatched a unique peacekeeping mission to restore order and died in a plane crash under mysterious circumstances.  Stuart Reid weaves each of these stories into a single compelling narrative that reads at times like a spy thriller.   

Alexander Ward ia national security reporter for POLITICO and author of the book "The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump." We discuss the implications of Mitch McConnell stepping down as the leader of the Senate Republicans and delve into the key themes and insights from Ward's important new book. We explore the concept of the "foreign policy for the middle class" and how it shaped the Biden administration's approach to foreign policy. Ward also examines the decision-making process behind the Afghanistan withdrawal and the administration's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Our conversation sheds light on the acrimonious relationship between Biden and Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, and the challenges of navigating international crises. The episode concludes with a discussion on the ongoing Gaza crisis and the potential impact of Trumpism on future foreign policy decisions.

There is a global development pileup on the horizon. In 2024 and 2025, about a dozen funding pools that support global development and global health are due for replenishment. These replenishments are essentially fundraisers for entities like the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations (GAVI), and the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), among many, many others. A new report from the Center for Global Development warns that these fundraisers may all be competing with each other for similar pools of money—and doing so at a time of contracting foreign aid budgets and pivotal elections in key donor countries. One of the authors of that report, Clemence Landers, joins me for a conversation about the causes and consequences of a potential replenishment traffic jam. We kick off discussing what we mean by a "replenishment" in Global Development speak. Clemence Landers also makes the point that of these fundraisers, the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) is arguably the most consequential. IDA is the branch of the World Bank that provides grants and very concessional loans to support the development priorities of the lowest-income countries. The World Bank president is seeking a major replenishment this December.

On January 28th, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger jointly announced they were leaving the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS. This is a regional economic and political union of most countries in West africa. Citizens enjoy free movement across borders of ECOWAS member states and many of its members share the same currency.  ECOWAS also seeks to uphold democratic norms, and each of these three countries are led by military juntas. Now, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are setting up rival entity, called the Alliance of Sahel States.  Joining me to discuss the significance of this joint decision to exit ECOWAS is Ornella Moderan, a researcher and practitioner who's been working in the Sahel and West Africa for nearly 15 years. She is currently a Research Fellow with the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute. We kick off discussing the role of ECOWAS in West Africa, particularly the important,albeit imperfect, ways it seeks to uphold democracy in the region. She then explains why these countries left ECOWAS and what this decision means for the region, for Africa and for the world at large.   

Last week, the United States Senate passed a foreign aid bill that included about $60 billion for Ukraine's defense. The vote was overwhelmingly bi-partisan, but the ultimate fate of continued American aid for Ukraine now depends on action in the House of Representatives, where the outcome is unknown. Mounting uncertainty around America's commitment to Ukraine's defense comes at the two year anniversary of Russia's invasion. The apparent wavering today is a far cry from the overwhelmingly broad support for Ukraine in the early days of the war. So how did we get to this point? And how might the passage or not of a spending bill to support Ukraine impact the trajectory of the war and the transatlantic alliance that has emerged in Ukraine's defense? Joining me to discuss these questions and more is Peter Van Praagh, President of HFX, a Washington, DC based organization that convenes the Halifax International Security Forum. We kick off discussing the action in the United States Congress before having a broader conversation about the necessity of international support for Ukraine and the implications should that support waver.  Disorder Podcast https://tr.ee/ksicr-3Wty

Indonesia is the third largest democracy in the world, and on February 14th national elections were held including to replace the extremely popular outgoing president Joko Widodo. The current defense minister Prabowo Subianto won those elections and will be Indonesia's next president. He's a controversial figure who has been credibly accused of human rights abuses during Indonesia's long Suharto dicatorship. He was also a former rival of Joko Widodo, but received the popular president's backing while tapping the president's son as to run as his presidential nominee.  Indonesia is a massive democracy in an increasingly stragegic region. So what does Prabowo Subianto's election mean for Indonesia's foreign policy, its relationship to the United States and China, and for broader global trends like climate change? To answer these questions and more I speak with Prashanth Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow at the Wilson Center and Founder of the Asean Wonk Newsletter. We kick off discussing Prabowo's background before having a longer conversation about how this change in government may impact Indonesian foreign policy.   

2024 is an important year for African democracy. At least 19 national elections scheduled to take place this year. Not all of these elections will be free or fair-- let alone competetive. Some of these elections will serve to ensconce leaders for life like Rwanda's Paul Kagame. Others may serve to consolidate power following a coup. But genuine multi-party democracies like Ghana and South Africa are also headed to the polls in important elections.  Joining me to discuss key trends in African democracy and some of the highlights on the African electoral calendar in 2024 is Oge Onubogu, director of the Africa Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center. We kick off discussing Senegal, a once reliably stable democracy that has experienced significant backsliding and recently cancelled upcoming elections.  Disorder Podcast

To understand any country's foreign policy you need to understand domestic political dynamics. So what is driving Iranian decision making right now? Negar Mortazavi is a journalist, host of the Iran Podcast and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy. I reached out to her for this interview because it seems that lost in much commentary about the widening crisis in the middle east is a nuanced understanding of what is influencing Iranian policy and decision making. Our conversation focuses on Iranian domestic politics and how that is shaping the regime's response to the Gaza crisis and US strikes against Iran backed groups in the region. Disorder Podcast:  https://tr.ee/ksicr-3Wty